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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."